¿Quien será el próximo presidente de la República Dominicana?

In Opiniones
mayo 27, 2020
210 Comments

Por Juan Matos, MSc | twitter: @juanmatos.-Hoy a las 10:00 PM el noticiero SIN publicará los resultados de la encuesta de Mark Penn (Antes Penn & Schoen), aún desconozco los resultados, pero les aseguro, que este pronóstico es tan confiable que podría desvelar el próximo presidente de la República Dominicana y en este escrito les explico en detalles por qué.

Mark Penn, que estudió política en Harvard, es un experto estadounidense en comunicación política, especialista en encuestas, cofundador de la empresa demoscópica Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates y ha dirigido las campañas políticas de líderes de renombre internacional como Bill y Hillary Clinton, Tony Blair, Ed Koch y muchos otros.

Él es cofundador de Penn & Schoen, la primera firma encuestadora en acreditarse en la República Dominicana. En el 1981 fue contratada por primera vez en el país por el grupo Avanzada Electoral, que promovía la candidatura del doctor Salvador Jorge Blanco.

No nos cabe duda, es una firma experimentada, pero su mejor carta de presentación es la certidumbre de sus predicciones, para dejar comprobado esto, he decidido recopilar los datos de las encuestas publicadas y los resultados electorales de los últimos 20 años, para comparar y evidenciar la exactitud de sus resultados.

En octubre 1999 la encuestadora Penn & Schoen presentó su pronóstico para la contienda electoral del 2000: Hipólito Mejía (PRD): 51%, Danilo Medina (PLD): 26% y Joaquín Balaguer (PRSC): 20%.

De todas las encuestadoras, la Penn & Schoen fue la más certera, en mayo del 2000 resultó electo como presidente, Hipólito Mejía, con un 49.9% de los votos, seguido por Danilo Medina (PLD) con un 24.94% de los votos y Joaquín Balaguer (PRSC) con un 24.60%

A principio de mayo del 2004 la encuestadora Penn & Schoen presentó su pronóstico para la contienda electoral de ese año: Leonel Fernández (PLD) con un 59%, Miguel Vargas Maldonado (PRD) con un 27% y Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) con un 11%.

Tal como había pronosticado Penn & Schoen, Leonel Fernández (PLD), con un 56.69% de votos, resultó electo como presidente por segunda vez. Hipólito Mejía (PRD) logró un 33.91% de la totalidad de los votos y Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) un 8.62%.

A principio de mayo del 2008 la encuestadora Mark Penn (Antes Penn & Schoen) presentó su pronóstico para la contienda electoral de ese año, la encuestadora vaticinaba que Leonel Fernández (PLD) lograría un 56%, Miguel Vargas Maldonado (PRD) un 37% y Amable Aristy Castro (PRSC): 5%.

Tal como había presagiado Mark Penn, en las elecciones de mayo 2008, Leonel Fernández resultó reelecto, por tercera vez, como presidente con un 53.5% de los votos, seguido por Miguel Vargas (PRD) con un 40.6% y Amable Aristy (PRSC) con un 4,59%.

El 8 de mayo 2012 Mark Penn presentó su pronóstico para las elecciones, en estas el PRSC apoyó el  

PLD y Margarita Cedeño y Luis Abinader fueron los candidatos a la Vicepresidencia, por el PLD y el PRD respectivamente. Mark Penn pronosticó que Danilo Medina (PLD) ganaría con un 51% de los votos e Hipólito Mejía (PRD) con un 46%.

Como lo auguró Mark Penn, el PLD preservó el poder y Danilo Medina resulto electo presidente con un 51,21% e Hipólito Mejía (PRD), resultó ser el perdedor en esta contienda, alcanzando un 46,95% de los votos en estas elecciones.

El 12 de abril 2016 Mark Penn presentó su pronóstico para las elecciones de ese año, el PRD apoyo el PLD y el PRM (Fracción del PRD y Fundado en el 2014) participaba por primera vez en elecciones. 

Las encuestas daban a Danilo Medina (PLD) una abismal ventaja de un 62% en la intención del voto y a Luis Abinader (PRM) un 29%.

Mark Penn acertó de nuevo y en las presidenciales del 2016, el PLD preservó el poder y Danilo Medina, con un 61.70% de los votos, se convirtió en el Presidente más votado de la historia democrática dominicana en los últimos 50 años. En estas elecciones Luis Abinader (PRM) logró el 35,09% de los votos.

Por primera vez, el 2 de marzo 2020, la Mark Penn presentó un pronóstico electoral de elecciones municipales y para esto seleccionó 4 municipios importantes del país, en los cuales intentaría predecir por quien la gente votaría.

Los resultados de estas encuestas fueron los siguientes:

Distrito Nacional – Carolina Mejía (PRM) 52%;

Santo Domingo Este – Manuel Jiménez (PRM) 53%;

Santiago – Abel Martínez (PLD) 40%;

Higüey – Rafael Duluc (Cholitin) (PRM) 44%;

Como era de esperarse, los candidatos municipales que Mark Penn dio como ganadores en sus encuestas, fueron electos este 15 de marzo.

Distrito Nacional – Carolina Mejía (PRM): 57.97%

Santo Domingo Este – Manuel Jiménez (PRM): 59.89%

Santiago – Abel Martínez (PLD): 49.62%

Higüey – Rafael Duluc (Cholitin) (PRM): 54.38%

¿Quién será el próximo presidente? ¡Yo no sé! Pero estoy seguro de que hoy lo sabremos.

Juan Matos, MSc

CEO y Fundador de Volarit, Vicepresidente de la Internet Society en República Dominicana.  

Informático con un Master en Gestión Pública de la Universidad de las Palmas de Gran Canaria, un Master en Tecnología, Aprendizaje y Educación de la Universidad del País Vasco, Un Master en Ciberseguridad en el INTEC y trabaja en su tesis para optar por el grado de doctor de la Universidad del País Vasco. 

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