NG Cortiñas: recuperación económica dependerá del presidente que gane
Santo Domingo.- El economista Haivanjoe NG Cortiñas consideró que la economía dominicana solo tiene la esperanza de reponerse en el corto plazo, dependiendo del comportamiento de los tres principales factores que inciden actualmente sobre la República Dominicana, que son, el de la recuperación económica mundial post Covid-19, del control de la crisis sanitaria local por el nuevo coronavirus y de quién gane las elecciones presidenciales del 5 de julio.
Afirma que la economía norteamericana aún no ha controlado la tasa de propagación del Covid-19 y varios de sus principales estados han tenido un repunte en la tasa de contagio, razón que permite pronosticar que la recuperación de la economía estadounidense será lenta para lo que queda del año 2020, pues aun registra una tasa de desempleo de un 13.3 % y tiene el desafío de que el 26.0 % de los negocios puedan reabrir en el corto plazo.
En cuanto a las economías de China y Europa, NG Cortiñas apunta que estas presentan grandes desafíos y las de los principales países de Latinoamérica, como Brasil, México, Perú y Chile, les tomarán más tiempo su recuperación.
En el plano local, el economista señala que las autoridades no han podido contener la expansión y letalidad del Covid-19 y hoy nos acercamos a los 31 mil contagiados y a más de 718 fallecidos, pese a que el país lleva más de tres meses con el estado de emergencia nacional, lo que ha derivado que la crisis sanitaria se traduzca en una crisis económica y social innecesaria.
Dijo que dicha crisis se manifiesta en la caída del PIB de un -7.5 % en los primeros meses del año -el más alto de los últimos 50 años en el país-, al alto nivel de desempleo y aumento de la pobreza que se advierten, ante la caída de los ingresos monetarios de los trabajadores, pertenecientes a los sectores formales e informales de la economía, que perdieron sus empleos en forma temporal y que muchos no podrán reincorporarse por el cierre total o parcial de las empresas.
Agregó que debido a la caída del PIB, del empleo y de una inflación negativa en los primeros cinco meses del año, en un 1.25 %, una expresión de la caída de la demanda, es indicativo de que la economía dominicana ha entrado en la primera fase de una recesión, que podría prolongarse en función de los resultados de las elecciones y de la no contención de la epidemia por Covid-19.
El economista enfatizó que el manejo inadecuado de la política sanitaria en el país ha provocado un impacto muy severo sobre la economía, lo que obligará que para recuperarse se necesiten alrededor de 5 mil millones de dólares para colocar a la economía en el nivel en que se encontraba pre Covid-19 y, siempre y cuando, en las próximas semanas la epidemia pueda controlarse en el territorio nacional.
NG Cortiñas indicó que ante un escenario sanitario aun no controlado, los resultados electorales serán determinantes para la detención o continuación de la expansión del coronavirus en el país y por lo tanto de la recuperación económica.
“En el escenario que gane un candidato sin experiencia, como Luis Abinader, los agentes económicos se tomarán un compás de espera para valorar la calidad de las políticas públicas que implemente y eso será un tiempo que va en contra de la recuperación de las actividades comerciales y productivas”, alertó.
En ese mismo sentido, añadió que en el hipotético que gane Gonzalo Castillo, que no le ha comunicado al país lo que piensa acerca de los problemas nacionales, tanto los estructurales, como los causados por el Covid-19 y, la ausencia de experiencia en manejo de crisis, hacen previsible una mayor incertidumbre acerca del éxito de la recuperación económica en el menor tiempo posible.
Sostuvo que en la posibilidad que el candidato ganador sea Leonel Fernández, que ha construido experiencias de éxitos en el manejo de crisis, los agentes económicos podrían percibir mayor nivel de certidumbre en las políticas económicas a implementar para superar las crisis sanitaria, económica y social que padece la República Dominicana
Finalmente, Haivanjoe NG Cortiñas se mostró de acuerdo con el nivel de incredulidad que muestra la población sobre la no recuperación de la economía en el corto plazo, habida cuenta que el dominicano de a pie, construye su valoración acerca de los acontecimientos económicos, a partir de su imaginario social, que se lo provee el estar en contacto a diario con la realidad que le rodea y no desde la acera del confort.
29 de junio, 2020
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Each level-up offers a new move or an upgrade to strengthen your build. 3118be35.
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Evolving attacks can turn a weak starter into a strong late-game build. 61ce3520.
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