Estudio prevé aumentos en precio del barril de petróleo; combustibles serían impactados

In Destacadas
agosto 6, 2017
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SANTO DOMINGO. Los precios de los combustibles en la República Dominicana dependen del comportamiento del petróleo en el mercado internacional, debido a que el país hasta el momento no es productor.

En un mes, el precio del barril del petróleo ha variado US$5.35, al pasar de US$44.23 que costaba a principio de julio a US$49.58 al 4 de agosto, provocando así, un aumento en los precios de los diferentes tipos de combustibles que exige el mercado local.

Pero, según el estudio económico de América Latina y el Caribe titulado “La dinámica del ciclo económico actual y los desafíos de política para dinamizar la inversión y el crecimiento”, presentado por la CEPAL, el precio del crudo seguirá en aumento porque según fuentes especializadas, tanto a aumentos de la demanda como al hecho de que los países miembros de la OPEP y otros países productores liderados por la Federación de Rusia extendieron a finales de mayo sus recortes por nueve meses más, hasta marzo de 2018.

Además, el estudio indica que las tensiones geopolíticas en algunos países productores, así como la posible agudización de la crisis en la República Bolivariana de Venezuela representarían riesgos al alza en el precio del petróleo.

La CEPAL explica que el precio del petróleo crudo se habría visto beneficiado a comienzos de 2017 por el acuerdo de los miembros de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) (de noviembre de 2016) en el sentido de reducir sus cuotas de producción de crudo, al que además adhirieron otros países no miembros, como es el caso de la Federación de Rusia. Sin embargo, a partir del mes de marzo se observó una nueva debilidad en los precios del crudo, como consecuencia principalmente del aumento de las existencias y la producción por parte de los Estados Unidos.

Otras de las explicaciones que da el estudio presentado por la CEPAL, es que a la recuperación de la actividad y del comercio mundial se agregan en 2017 precios de los productos básicos un 12% más alto que los de 2016, en promedio, con acento en la energía y los metales y minerales.

Argumenta que después de las marcadas caídas de los precios de productos básicos de los últimos años, se espera que en 2017 los niveles de precios de estos productos sean en promedio un 12% más altos que en 2016.

Los precios de los productos energéticos son los que mostrarían el mayor crecimiento en 2017, de un 19%, respecto de los precios promedio vigentes en 2016, mientras que los precios de los demás productos básicos presentarían un aumento del 9%.

El estudio económico de América Latina y el Caribe titulado “La dinámica del ciclo económico actual y los desafíos de política para dinamizar la inversión y el crecimiento”, presentado por la CEPAL, apunta en cuanto a los metales y minerales, se espera para 2017 un precio superior al del año anterior. Dentro de este grupo, los precios de los metales industriales, como el cobre, se han visto favorecidos desde fines de 2016 por las expectativas en relación con el paquete de inversión en infraestructura anunciado por el nuevo Gobierno estadounidense.

Aunque ya se da por descontado que dicho paquete no se implementará este año, se prevé que el precio de los minerales y metales, en promedio, estará un 16% por encima del vigente durante 2016.

En el caso de los productos agropecuarios, el estudio indica que las mejores cosechas en varios de ellos, como los granos y la soja, incidirían en un aumento mucho más moderado de los precios. Se espera para 2017 un precio que en promedio resultará un 3% superior al vigente durante el año anterior. Esta diversa recuperación de precios de los productos básicos, que se observa con un mayor acento en los productos energéticos y los metales y minerales, tendrá impactos diferenciados en los términos de intercambio de las distintas economías de América Latina y el Caribe.

Combustibles en República Dominicana

Desde el ocho de julio a la fecha, la gasolina Premium ha registrado un aumento de RD$10.00 por galón. Mientras que en el caso de la gasolina regular fue de RD$6.00.

El gasoil regular, al igual que la gasolina Premium, ha aumentado RD$10.00 por galón, en tanto que el óptimo ha sido de RD$10.50.

También, desde el ocho de julio el combustible avtur registra alza de RD$14.50 por galón y el Kerosene de RD$18.00. Otros combustibles que registraron alzas en este periodo fueron: el fuel Oil de RD$4.50 y el Gas licuado de Petróleo (GLP) con alzas de RD$8.50 por galón. En esa misma fecha la gasolina premium costaba RD$204.30 por galón, la gasolina Regular a RD$191.20; el gasoil regular RD$142.00 y el gasoil óptimo a RD$154.10 por galón.

Igualmente, el avtur se vendía a RD$104.40 por galón, el kerosene a RD$128.00; el fuel Oil costaba RD$93.05 por galón, el Gas Licuado de Petróleo (GLP) a RD$98.00 por galón y el Gas Natural se ha mantenido a RD$28.97 por metro cúbico.

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