Estudio confirma nuevo mandatario será elegido en una segunda vuelta electoral; contienda sería entre Luis Abinader y Leonel Fernández.
Si las elecciones del 5 de julio fueran hoy ninguno de los candidatos que compiten por la presidencia de la República lograría alzarse con el triunfo electoral en una primera vuelta, así lo revela la firma encuestadora Global Trend Research, en su último informe presentado al país.
De acuerdo al estudio realizado entre el 10 y el 14 de mayo del 2020, el 58.6% de los dominicanos piensa que las elecciones presidenciales se decidirán en una segunda ronda de votación, mientras que el 41.4% entiende que podría decidirse en una primera vuelta.
En ese mismo tenor, la encuesta manifiesta que el 41.1% de los votantes lo haría por el candidato del Partido Revolucionario Moderno, Luis Abinader; el 34.2% votaría por el candidato de la Fuerza del Pueblo, Leonel Fernández; el 23.4% ejercería ese derecho a favor del candidato presidencial del Partido de la Liberación Dominicana, Gonzalo Castillo, y el 1% aún no sabe por quién votaría.
En una segunda vuelta electoral, los posibles escenarios arrojaron el resultado siguiente: el candidato del PRM, Luis Abinader, lograría un 44.8% frente al candidato de la Fuerza del Pueblo, Leonel Fernández, quien obtendría 43.1%; un 9.4% que expresó que no votaría por ninguno de los dos y el 2.7% no sabe o se abstuvo de responder.
El otro escenario de segunda vuelta le otorga al candidato del PRM, Luis Abinader, el 59% de la intención del voto frente a un 33.8% del candidato presidencial del PLD, Gonzalo Castillo; el 4.% de los consultados expresó que no votaría por ninguno de los dos y el 2.6% no sabe o se abstuvo de responder la pregunta.
El sondeo refleja un alto interés de los dominicanos por ejercer el derecho al voto, alcanzando entre seguro y muy seguro de ir a votar el 65% de los consultados, mientras que el 28% expresa poca posibilidad de ir a votar y un 7% aún no se ha decidido.
Otro dato importante del estudio es el referente al voto partidario en donde se evidencia la intención de una gran proporción de las bases peledeístas de votar por el candidato del Partido Fuerza del Pueblo, Leonel Fernández.
Ante la pregunta realizada a los que se consideran miembros o simpatizantes de los diferentes partidos, los resultados nos muestran lo siguiente: dentro del PLD, el 3.9% votaría por Luis Abinader; el 42.8%, por Leonel Fernández; el 45.3%, por Gonzalo Castillo y el 8.0% lo haría por el resto de los candidatos. En el PRM, el 95.3% votaría por Luis Abinader; 1.9%, por Leonel Fernández; 0.1%, por Gonzalo Castillo y el 2.7%, por candidatos de otros partidos.
Dentro del PRD, el 68.4%, votaría por Luis Abinader; el 19.2%, por Leonel Fernández; el 10.5%, por Gonzalo Castillo y el 1.9%, por otros partidos; en FP, el 99.3%, votaría por su candidato, Leonel Fernández y el 0.7%, lo haría por otra agrupación; en el PRSC, 92.2%, votaría por su candidato, Leonel Fernández; el 5.8%, por Gonzalo Castillo y el 2.0%, por otros candidatos; en Al PAÍS, el 28.9%, votaría por Luis Abinader; el 11.3%, por Leonel Fernández; el 3.2% por Gonzalo Castillo; el 53.8%, por Guillermo Moreno y el 2.8%, por candidatos de otros partidos.
Mientras que los que se declararon independientes expresaron que votarían, el 31.6%, por Luis Abinader; el 27.3%, por Leonel Fernández; el 17.2%, por Gonzalo Castillo; el 2.1%, por Guillermo Moreno y el 21.8%, dijo que lo haría por otras propuestas presidenciales.
En cuanto al rechazo de los candidatos, el de mayor tasa es el candidato del Partido de la Liberación Dominicana, Gonzalo Castillo, a quien el 55.1% de los consultados dijeron que nunca votaría por él; mientras que por Leonel Fernández, el 21.3%; por Luis Abinader el 19.6% y un 4% que nunca votaría por candidatos de otras ofertas partidarias.
Ante la pregunta de quien creen los dominicanos garantizaría el manejo eficiente del Estado tras la crisis sanitaria y económica fruto de la pandemia Covid-19, los resultados establecen que el 47% entienden que Luis Abinader puede manejar con eficiencia el Estado, un 23% entiende que no y un 30% dijo no saber.
En ese mismo sentido, el 63% entiende que Leonel Fernández, garantiza el manejo eficiente del Estado tras la crisis, el 22% entiende que no y el 15% no sabe o no responde.
En cuanto al candidato oficialista, Gonzalo Castillo, el 39%, cree que podría manejar con eficiencia el Estado, el 48% entiende que no y el 13% se negó a responder.
Los encuestadores preguntaron a quienes se identificaron como empleados públicos de con quién de los candidatos presidenciales sentían más seguridad en la preservación de sus puestos de trabajo a lo que respondieron: el 57%, entienden que en una administración de
Luis Abinader perdería sus puestos de trabajo; el 18% cree que lo preservaría, y el 25% no sabe.
En cuanto a Leonel Fernández, el 73% de los que se identificaron como empleados públicos dijeron sentirse confiados en que sus puestos de trabajo serían respetados, el 16% entienden que no, y el 11% dijo no saber.
En ese mismo orden y al hacer la misma pregunta, pero en una posible administración de Gonzalo Castillo, el 58%, cree que preservaría su puesto de trabajo, el 23% entiende que no y el 19%, dijo no saber
Finalmente, el estudio muestra que 89% de los dominicanos está de acuerdo con la devolución de una proporción (30%), de los fondos de pensiones acumulados por los trabajadores, el 8% dijo oponerse y el 3% se negó a responder.
El estudio contiene además otras importantes informaciones sobre el manejo del Gobierno ante la crisis generada por el Covid-19; la percepción del rumbo de la economía dominicana, sus principales problemas; valoración de la figura del presidente Danilo Medina y su administración; fortaleza del voto partidario; expectativas de mejoría de los ciudadanos en el presente y futuro gobierno, entre otras variables.
Global Trend Research, es una firma encuestadora que se encuentra establecida en el 7861 NW 159 Terr Miami FL 33116. P.O. Box 171156 Miami FL 33017, Estados Unidos, y ha realizado este sondeo por encargo de la empresa Digerso Group Corp., dedicada al área farmacéutica y seguros, la misma está ubicada en el 36 Stony Run Rd., Newburg NY 12550 Ph: 347 479 1100, New York, Estados Unidos.
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