Banco Central reduce su tasa de política monetaria en 50 puntos básicos
Santo Domingo.-El Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD) dispuso la reducción en 50 puntos básicos de su tasa de interés de política monetaria, pasando de 3.50 % a 3.00 % anual.
Adicionalmente el BCRD decidió estrechar el corredor de tasas de interés, al disminuir la tasa de interés de la facilidad permanente de expansión de liquidez (Repos a 1 día) de 4.50 % a 3.50 % anual, mientras que la tasa de interés de depósitos remunerados (Overnight) se mantiene en 2.50 % anual, según un comunicado de la institución.
De esta forma, el corredor de las facilidades permanentes de liquidez del Banco Central tendrá un rango de ± 50 puntos básicos con respecto a la tasa de política monetaria, precisa la nota.
Estas medidas deberán contribuir a sostener el dinamismo del crédito y proporcionar un alivio financiero a empresas y hogares.
Fundamentos de la decisión
La decisión sobre la tasa de referencia se basa en el análisis exhaustivo del impacto de la pandemia del COVID-19 sobre la actividad económica y la evolución futura de la inflación.
Respecto a la inflación la nota reseña que la variación mensual del Índice de Precios al Consumidor en julio fue de 1.88 %, mientras que la inflación acumulada durante los primeros siete meses del año fue 2.32 % y precisa que el sistema de pronósticos del BCRD y las expectativas de los agentes económicos señalan que las presiones inflacionarias recientes son de carácter transitorio.
Materias primas
En relación con las materias primas, el BCRC refiere que el precio del petróleo intermedio de Texas (WTI), utilizado como referencia para fines presupuestarios, se ha estabilizado en torno a los US$40 dólares por barril, proyectándose un precio promedio para 2020 en torno a los US$ 38.5 dólares el barril, por debajo de los US$ 60 por barril, precio inicialmente previsto en el Presupuesto Nacional.
Agrega que el precio del oro continúa en incremento, ubicándose en niveles históricos por encima de los US$ 1,900 dólares por onza troy al ser utilizado como refugio de valor en un contexto de alta incertidumbre en los mercados internacionales.
El BCRD destaca que el comportamiento observado durante este año en los precios de los bienes primarios deberá beneficiar los términos de intercambio de República Dominicana y contribuir a la balanza de pagos, a través de una menor factura petrolera y del incremento en el valor de las exportaciones de oro.
Recuperación
En el entorno doméstico, el Índice Mensual de Actividad Económica (IMAE), señala que, luego de tocar fondo en abril con una caída de 29.8%, la economía se encuentra en un proceso parcial de recuperación, registrando variaciones de -13.6 % en mayo y -7.1 % en junio.
Indica que según las proyecciones preliminares el crecimiento económico durante julio se ubicaría en torno a la variación acumulada durante el primer semestre de -8.5 %. Hacia adelante, los modelos de pronósticos prevén que la economía se recuperaría gradualmente durante el resto del año y se acercaría a su crecimiento potencial en 2021, una vez superada las crisis sanitaria y económica derivadas del COVID-19.
En este contexto, el Banco Central continúa implementando un conjunto de medidas monetarias orientadas a mitigar los efectos del coronavirus, a través de un incremento en el financiamiento para los sectores productivos y los hogares.
Como resultado de las medidas monetarias que se han adoptado las condiciones financieras se han mantenido favorables, registrándose una reducción en las tasas de interés de los préstamos otorgados por la banca múltiple. Por otro lado, el crédito privado en moneda nacional se expande a una tasa interanual cercana al 10 % al cierre de agosto, observándose una moderación con respecto al ritmo de expansión observado en los últimos meses.
La implementación del amplio paquete de estímulo monetario continuará sirviendo de apoyo para la recuperación gradual de los sectores económicos, para facilitar la preservación y generación de empleos y permitir la convergencia del crecimiento hacia su potencial en el horizonte de política.
La entidad señala además que la ejecución de esta modificación presupuestaria y la posibilidad de acceder a financiamiento externo por unos US$3 mil millones, junto al plan de estímulo monetario adoptado por el Banco Central, contribuirá a combatir los enormes retos derivados de la crisis sanitaria y a facilitar la reactivación gradual de la economía dominicana.
Destaca también que los altos niveles de Reservas Internacionales del Banco Central, que se ubican en torno los US$7 mil millones (equivalentes a aproximadamente 9.0 % del PIB), y los fuertes fundamentos macroeconómicos permitirán que la institución pueda seguir apoyando al mercado cambiario, contribuyendo a mantener la estabilidad relativa del tipo de cambio ante un convulso entorno internacional.
El Banco Central reafirmó su compromiso de conducir la política monetaria hacia el logro de su meta de inflación y el buen funcionamiento de los sistemas financiero y de pagos, preservando bajos niveles de inflación y manteniendo la estabilidad relativa del tipo de cambio.
La institución continuará dando especial seguimiento al impacto del COVID-19 sobre la economía dominicana y está preparada para continuar reaccionando de forma oportuna ante factores que puedan poner en riesgo el objetivo de inflación y afectar la estabilidad macroeconómica.
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