Encuesta ASISA revela 77% rechaza reforma constitucional, Leonel encabeza preferencia con 46% pero PLD pierde 11 puntos

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julio 22, 2019
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Santo Domingo,- La encuestadora Asisa Research mostró los resultados de una encuesta en la que el expresidente Leonel Fernández (PLD) obtuvo un 46.0% de simpatías y Luis Abinader con un 40% (PRM).

Un 12% afirma que ninguno y un 2% aún se muestra indeciso si tuviera que elegir entre ambos.

La firma indicó que el estudio fue ordenado por un grupo de empresarios pero no especificó cuáles, indicando que entregaron los nombres a la Junta Central Electoral.

Abinader se mantiene puntero en las primarias del PRM con el 72% de los votos dentro miembros del partido. En el caso del PLD, que realizará primarias abiertas hay que considerar la totalidad de la muestra.

Mientras que Domínguez Brito alcanza 2.4%; el 12.4% contesta que no ha decidido por quién votaría, mientras que aproximadamente el 14% declina contestar; los restantes precandidatos reúnen el resto, aproximadamente un 6%.

Al considerar entre todos los posibles candidatos de los diferentes partidos por cuál de estos nunca votaría, Hipólito Mejía alcanza la mayor proporción (23%), seguido por Danilo Medina (21%), Leonel Fernández (19%).

Siguen Ramfis Domínguez Trujillo (7%), Luis Abinader (5%), Miguel Vargas (2%), Guillermo Moreno (2%), David Collado (2%) y Pelegrín Castillo con un 1%. El resto de las figuras y precandidatos incluidos alcanza tasas de rechazo inferiores totalizando en conjunto un 2%.

En este contexto, 35.5% afirma que votaría por Leonel Fernández y el 22.1% por Danilo Medina, Margarita Cedeño con un 7.4%.

El estudio fue realizado entre el 16 y el 19 de julio del presente año con una muestra fue de 1,200 electores encuestados mediante la técnica presencial en hogares (cara a cara) y un método de muestreo desarrollado por Asisa: “muestreo poli-etápico ultra disperso” con un margen de error +/- 2.3% y nivel de confianza de 95%.

Contra la reforma constitucional

Asimismo, la mayoría, el 77% de los ciudadanos, se expresa en contra de que se modifique de nuevo la Carta Magna para permitir la repostulación del presidente Danilo Medina.

Al preguntar a los encuestados sobre el impacto para el país que perciben tendría una nueva modificación constitucional, la mayoría lo califica como “negativo” (71%).

El 69% de los entrevistados expresa estar de acuerdo con las movilizaciones frente al Congreso Nacional. Esta aprobación se registra superior al 60% en todas las regiones del país; aumentando a un 75% en Santo Domingo y la Región Noroeste.

Dijeron que el rechazo a la potencial reforma constitucional ha experimentado un crecimiento sostenido en las últimas cuatro mediciones de la encuesta: 71% en marzo 2018, 70% en agosto 2018, 73% en marzo 2019 y 77% en julio 2019.

Los resultados relacionados a la aprobación del gobierno en la presente coyuntura indican un descenso sensible: Un 35.2% aprueba la actual gestión mientras que un 62% la desaprueba.

Los tres aspectos negativos principales del actual gobierno para los electores lo representan: la percepción de corrupción en el gobierno (26%), seguido por la idea de ineficiencia de los funcionarios (20%) y el aumento de la pobreza (13%).

El mapa político actual, sobre membresía y simpatía por partido presenta un escenario donde el PLD se mantiene como partido mayoritario con un 44% seguido de los “independientes” con un 26% y el PRM con un 23%. El 7% reporta simpatizar o pertenecer a otros partidos.

Con relación a las simpatías partidistas, se visualizan indicios de impacto negativo sobre todo para partido gobernante. En la presente encuesta Asisa julio del 2019, el 44% de los entrevistados afirma que siente mayor simpatía por el PLD.

Si bien sigue siendo el partido mayor del sistema, el presente resultado representa una disminución de 11% al compararlo con los resultados de la encuesta de marzo 2019, donde alcanzaba un 55%.

El PRM alcanza un 29% en la medición de julio del 2019, para un aumento de 1.9% respecto a marzo 2019, donde alcanzaba un 27.1%. La proporción de ciudadanos que se abstienen de responder aumentó de un 29% en marzo 2019 a un 14% en la medición de julio 2019.

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